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In addition, [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RVX_208 RVX-208] recovery at any given point in time does not guarantee that an individual will remain free of alcohol problems. That is one reason why my paper estimated both overall rates of recovery and the considerably lower rates of stable (i.e. persisting at least 5 years) recovery [4]. In studying the prospective stability of recovery using the Wave 2 NESARC data, I found that a fairly substantial proportion of individuals in remission from alcohol dependence at the baseline wave 1 interview had developed new AUD symptoms within the 3 years between interviews, with relapse rates highest among those who were drinkers at baseline [17]. The relapse study was also important, I think, for showing that relapse is epidemic among college-age recovering alcoholics, even those in abstinent recovery at baseline. A: The benefits of treatment? DD: I hope that my paper on alcohol treatment [18] increases perceptions of the benefits of treatment and participation in mutual-help organizations. This was one of my favorite papers, in that it permitted me to do what I most like to do in my research: use a new or different statistical approach to study a perplexing issue, in this case why so many studies have failed to find a positive association between treatment and recovery. I showed that benefits of treatment are evident only when assessed in a prospective manner, from the time when treatment is first obtained onwards. In other words, the benefits of treatment are underestimated when treatment is associated with [http://www.selleckchem.com/products/BMS-777607.html BMS-777607 purchase] the typically long pre-treatment [http://www.selleckchem.com/products/Neratinib(HKI-272).html Neratinib concentration] periods during which drinkers initially try on their own and fail to overcome their drinking problems. That paper also illustrated how different the results and interpretation might have been had other statistical models been used to evaluate the same data. A: This past spring, you proposed at Kettil Bruun a methodological mechanism whereby countries might validate low-risk drinking guidelines related to their societal harms. Is it optimistic to suggest that you foresee a time when public policy and scientific recommendations about alcohol use are based on societal and individual risk reduction models? DD: To the best of my knowledge, low-risk drinking guidelines have always been informed rationally by the scientific literature, but too often that literature has been limited by inadequate measures of alcohol consumption that yield a biased picture of risk relationships. For example, in the days when average daily volume was the only consumption metric used in epidemiological studies, guidelines were necessarily stated in terms of average daily limits, often multiplied times seven and stated as weekly limits. With the availability of more data on drinking patterns and acute consequences of drinking, countries have increasingly included daily drinking limits not to be exceeded on any day.